(NB: When I refer to UTAS in my writings I am referring only to the management clique who make the big decisions for the University, not to UTAS staff generally, who continue to do a great job, in trying circumstances).

1. Key Points

The Tasmanian student brain drain

On 26 September 2025, the Commonwealth Department of Education (CDE) published university student enrolment data for 2024.

This data shows a continuing trend of Tasmanian students (“students with a permanent residence in Tasmania” in CDE terms) choosing to enrol at interstate universities rather than at UTAS – with an increase from 17.9% in 2013 to 28.5% in 2024. (For details see Section 2 below).

As Tasmania is a one university state, the education of Tasmanians in Tasmania should be a key performance indicator – indeed the principal performance indicator – for UTAS. This is particularly the case as the majority of Tasmanians who move interstate to study remain interstate, representing a major brain drain from Tasmania.

However, not only have I found no evidence that enrolment of Tasmanian students is a performance indicator for UTAS, but I have found no evidence of the Tasmanian student exodus being considered as an issue in the UTAS Council, since UTAS began publishing its Council minutes in February 2023.

  • Indeed there appears to have been scant attention given to the issues affecting Tasmanian students generally, notwithstanding the annual Commencing and Lost Student Survey.

This is derelict on the part of the UTAS Council.

In fact, governance appears to have broken down entirely at UTAS with little/erratic transparency and accountability of major UTAS management actions to the UTAS Council, and I will be writing on this more fully in coming weeks.

The brain drain should be of great concern not only to the UTAS Council, but to Tasmania’s politicians.

Retaining Tasmania’s ‘best and brightest’ in Tasmania is vital for fundamental and long term repair of the Tasmanian budget – as distinct from the sort of band aid solutions commonly talked about.

However, too many of Tasmania’s politicians accept everything UTAS says without question.

This needs to stop. Questions need to be asked and voices outside of senior UTAS management – and the apparently supine and sleepy headed UTAS Council – need to be heard.

Prevalence of fully on-line learning at UTAS

The CDE data shows that the trend towards fully on-line (“external” in CDE terms) study at UTAS has continued, with the percentage of domestic students commencing courses fully on-line increasing from 32.5% in 2013 to 73.0% in 2024.

  • “domestic” as used by is CDE a broader term than “resident”: for definitions of CDE terms see Appendix 1.

At a hearing of the Public Accounts Committee on 22 August 2024, UTAS argued that the increase in on-line enrolments (predominantly from interstate) was a good thing, and that it offset the decline in Tasmanian students.

  • UTAS’ evidence to the Public Accounts Committee included a presentation and oral testimony (both error and omission ridden), referenced here as UTAS Presentation and PAC Transcript respectively. On UTAS’ argument about the benefits of on-line enrolments see UTAS Presentation, Slide 24 and PAC Transcript, pages 15 and 30 particularly.

The increase in on-line enrolments may indeed be a good thing in some ways, but unless Tasmania’s brain drain to other states is offset by a permanent brain gain (by physical movement) of students from other states, Tasmania is a loser. Enrolments by interstate students at UTAS are overwhelmingly on-line (UTAS Presentation, Slide 24).

The recent redundancies at UTAS – Student and Community Survey Report

In May 2025, UTAS commenced a process of ‘consultation’ that led to 12 staff positions in the College of Arts, Law and Education being made redundant and to the end of several units (subjects) and courses.

During the consultation process a student organisation called Save UTAS Arts (now renamed Reclaim UTAS) was formed and conducted a major (117 page) survey documenting 134 responses, which it published as the Student and Community Survey Report (Student Survey).

Some of the key themes of the comments in the Student Survey are:

  • The consultation process was poor.

  • Many Tasmanian students have left the State already and cuts in course (and unit) offerings/staff, and increased on-line learning will see more students go.

  • Cuts in units and courses will also see students drop out of UTAS or not enrol at all.

  • UTAS is suffering reputational damage.

Particularly notable was the summary comment:

“There was clear and widespread opposition to excessive online delivery. Students repeatedly expressed a desire for more in-person classes, campus vibrancy, and meaningful face-to-face connection with peers and staff.” (page 26)

The consultation process was fraught and caused a significant amount of distress amongst staff and students.  I understand that there were concerns that the outcome of consultation was largely, if not totally, pre-determined. Having studied past UTAS consultation processes, I believe that such concerns would have been well-founded.

Conclusion

It is clear that there is a circularity to cuts/increased on-line delivery and decreasing enrolments at UTAS.

Reductions in staff, and unit and course offerings, and/or increased on-line delivery have the related effects of (1) Tasmanian students enrolling at interstate universities; (2) Tasmanian students dropping out of UTAS or not attending university altogether; and (3) causing severe reputational damage to UTAS.

This is turn leads to lower enrolments, creating a vicious cycle of decline within affected disciplines.

I remain firm in my view that UTAS needs to start playing to its greatest competitive strength – by offering face to face learning opportunities across the widest possible array of unit and course offerings, and with student amenities fully reinvigorated, at the uniquely located Sandy Bay campus, to create an attractive and active student environment. The Sandy Bay campus is a point of difference that UTAS has in a highly competitive market and any major reduction in campus space – such as sale of campus land above Churchill Avenue – would be an epic folly that Tasmania would rue for ever.

  • UTAS should provide both face to face and on-line learning, so that the mode of learning is a matter of choice for students, rather than – as frequently seems the case in regard to on-line learning – the only practical option.

2. “The Brain Drain” – Tasmanian students choosing other universities ahead of UTAS

While not a smooth line, there is a pronounced trend upwards in the percentage of commencing students with permanent residence in Tasmania (that is, Tasmanians) who chose interstate universities ahead of UTAS in the period 2013-2024.

  • While there was a slight percentage decrease in 2024 (lowering the trend line marginally), interstate migration data (see Appendix 2) and anecdotal evidence (including in the Student Survey and Lisa Denny’s report Leaving Tasmania 2024) suggests that 2025 enrolment will show the Tasmanian student exodus continuing. Any large loss of Tasmanian university students to interstate universities should be regarded as unacceptable/unaffordable by the UTAS Council and Tasmania’s politicians.

  • At UTAS’ hearing before the Public Accounts Committee on 22 August 2024, when asked about the return rate for Tasmanian students who depart, UTAS’ Chief Operating Officer, Craig Barling, stated, as if it was a good result, that “I think there was one year, and I’ll check this number – it was close to 20 per cent of students that left Tasmania came back.” (PAC Transcript, page 27)

  • It is not clear to whom, how and when this statement applied, but applying it to the 28- 30% of Tasmanian students currently choosing interstate universities over UTAS would mean up to 24% of Tasmania’s best and brightest were currently leaving Tasmania each year not to return (the actual figure, of course, would depend on what proportion of those commencing at interstate universities are doing so on-line).

3. Study at UTAS is increasingly external (on-line)

The trend of Tasmanian students choosing other universities ahead of UTAS has coincided with a large increase in on-line study.

  • This is clear in the following table (and graph), as on-line study increased from 32.5% in 2013 to 73% in 2023.

  • Interstate students enrolling at UTAS on-line is no substitute for Tasmanians leaving the state. Interstate migration data tends to indicate that even those interstate students who move to Tasmania to study at UTAS are not remaining in the State (See Appendix 2).
    • Only a small proportion of interstate students enrolling at UTAS are physically attending the University (UTAS Presentation, Slide 24).

  • Note that “domestic students” is a broader category than Tasmanians (see Appendix 1). However, Tasmanians are a large (albeit steadily declining) proportion of domestic students at UTAS.

The Student Survey has this summary (page 26) on on-line learning:

Appendix 1: Terms Used by the Commonwealth Department of Education

Higher education

For a list of higher education providers see Higher Education Support Act 2003, Subdivision 16-B.

UTAS is the only listed higher education institution in Tasmania.

Commencing students

“Commencing students are persons who have enrolled for the first time in a particular course at a particular higher education institution during the reference period [ie the stated calendar year].” (Source here, Explanatory notes tab)

Domestic Student

 “Domestic student is a student who is an Australian citizen, New Zealand citizen, Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) holder, permanent humanitarian visa holder or other permanent visa holder.” (Source here, Explanatory notes tab)

Mode of attendance

“Internal mode of attendance is where

  • the study is undertaken through attendance at the higher education provider on a regular basis; or

  • for higher degree unit enrolments, where regular attendance is not required, but the student attends the higher education provider on an agreed schedule for the purposes of supervision and/or instruction.

External mode of attendance is where lesson materials, assignments, etc. are delivered to the student, and any associated attendance at the institution is of an incidental, irregular, special or voluntary nature.

Multi-modal mode of attendance is where study is undertaken partially on an internal mode of attendance and partially on an external mode of attendance.” (my bolding)

(Source here)

Appendix 2: Interstate migration for Tasmania in principal university age groups

Excerpt from Australian Bureau of Statistics, Interstate migration: Arrivals, departures and net, State/territory, Age and sex – Calendar years, 1997 onwards

By : Robert Hogan