Tasmania’s brain drain – UTAS continues to fail Tasmania where it matters most

(NB: When I refer to UTAS in my writings I am referring only to the management clique who make the big decisions for the University, not to UTAS staff generally, who continue to do a great job, in trying circumstances).

Key Points

Earlier this year, I wrote a post on how UTAS is failing Tasmania, based on student data published by the Commonwealth Department of Education.

The Department has just started publishing data for 2023, and the picture is no better.

First, between 2013 and 2023, the percentage of Tasmania students choosing to commence courses at interstate universities, rather than at UTAS, increased from 17.9% to 29.9%.

This is an appalling statistic for UTAS and Tasmania – the education of Tasmanians in Tasmania should be a key performance indicator – indeed the principal performance indicator – for UTAS. This is particularly the case as the majority of Tasmanians who move interstate to study remain interstate, representing a major brain-drain from Tasmania.

• Tasmanians can attend interstate universities by moving interstate or by enrolling for on-line study at interstate universities. Anecdotal evidence, supported by interstate migration data, indicates the trend is towards Tasmanian students moving interstate.

Second, the trend towards on-line study at UTAS has continued, with the percentage of domestic students commencing courses on-line increasing from 32.5% in 2013 to 71.2% in 2023.

At a hearing of the Public Accounts Committee on 22 August 2024, UTAS argued that the increase in on-line enrolments (predominantly from interstate) was a great thing, and that it offset the decline in Tasmanian students.

• UTAS’ evidence to the Public Accounts Committee included a presentation and oral testimony (both error and omission ridden), referenced here as UTAS Presentation and PAC Transcript respectively. On UTAS’ argument about the benefits of on-line enrolments see UTAS Presentation, Slide 24 and PAC Transcript, pages 15 and 30 particularly.

The increase in on-line enrolments may be a great thing ins some ways, but unless Tasmania’s brain drain to other states is offset by a permanent brain gain (by physical movement) of students from other states, Tasmania is a loser. Enrolments by interstate students at UTAS are overwhelmingly on-line (UTAS Presentation, Slide 24).

UTAS is good at spinning statistics in its favour (that is, at propaganda).

I will have more to say about what the Commonwealth Department of Education’s data reveals about the true state of UTAS in coming weeks.

I remain firm in my view that UTAS needs to start playing to its greatest competitive strength – by offering face to face learning opportunities across all courses, and with a full range of student amenities at the uniquely located and beautiful Sandy Bay campus, to create an attractive and active student environment. The Sandy Bay campus is a point of difference that UTAS has in a highly competitive market and giving it up on the basis of UTAS’ flawed and unaffordable CBD relocation plan would be an epic folly that Tasmania would quickly come to rue.

• UTAS should provide both face to face and on-line learning, so that the mode of learning is a matter of choice for students, rather than – as frequently seems the case in regard to on-line learning – the only practical option.

Tasmanian students increasingly choosing other universities ahead of UTAS

While not a smooth line, there was a pronounced trend upwards in the percentage of commencing students with permanent residence in Tasmania (that is, Tasmanians) who chose interstate universities ahead of UTAS in the period 2013-2022, with the figure solidifying in 2023.

• The increase from 17.9% in 2013 to 29.8% in 2022 and 29.9% in 2023 means nearly one in three Tasmanians is now choosing another university ahead of UTAS.

• At UTAS’ hearing before the Public Accounts Committee on 22 August 2024, when asked about the return rate for Tasmanian students who depart, UTAS’ Chief Operating Officer, Craig Barling, stated, as if it was a good result, that “I think there was one year, and I’ll check this number – it was close to 20 per cent of students that left Tasmania came back.” (PAC Transcript, page 27)

• It is not clear to whom, how and when this statement applied, but applying it to the 30% of Tasmanian students currently choosing other universities over UTAS would mean up to 24% of Tasmania’s best and brightest were currently leaving Tasmania each year, not to return (the actual figure, of course, would depend on what proportion of those commencing at interstate universities are doing so on-line).

• Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that net migration from Tasmania to other states in the most common university age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34) has increased sharply in recent years with a net population loss of 2,540 people to Tasmania through interstate migration in 2023 compared to a gain of 310 in 2017 (see Appendix 1 for full data).
  • Departures figures were just as concerning with a total of 8,340 departures in 2023 compared to 6,850 in 2017.

• Lisa Denny’s excellent report Leaving Tasmania 2024, based on survey results, indicates that UTAS is operating as a push factor in Tasmanians’ decisions to leave the State (see particularly pages 14-15).

Study at UTAS is increasingly external (on-line)

The increase in the percentage of Tasmanian students choosing other universities ahead of UTAS has coincided with a large increase in external (on-line) study.

• This is clear in the following table (and graph), as external study increased from 32.5% in 2013 to 71.2% in 2023.

• Interstate students enrolling at UTAS on-line is no substitute for Tasmanians leaving the state. Interstate migration data tends to indicate that even those interstate students who move to Tasmania to study at UTAS are not remaining in the State (See Appendix 1).
  • Only a small proportion of interstate students enrolling at UTAS are physically attending the University (UTAS Presentation, Slide 24).

• Note that “domestic students” is a broader category than Tasmanians (see Appendix 1). However, Tasmanians are a large (albeit steadily declining) proportion of domestic students at UTAS.

Appendix 1: Interstate migration for Tasmania in principal university age groups

Excerpt from Australian Bureau of Statistics, Interstate migration: Arrivals, departures and net, State/territory, Age and sex – Calendar years, 1997 onwards

Appendix 2: Terms Used

Higher education

For a list of higher education providers see Higher Education Support Act 2003, Subdivision 16-B.

UTAS is the only listed higher education institution in Tasmania.

Commencing students

“Commencing students are persons who have enrolled for the first time in a particular course at a particular higher education institution during the reference period [ie the stated calendar year].” (Source here, Explanatory notes tab)

Domestic Student

 “Domestic student is a student who is an Australian citizen, New Zealand citizen, Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) holder, permanent humanitarian visa holder or other permanent visa holder.” (Source here, Explanatory notes tab)

Mode of attendance

“Internal mode of attendance is where

• the study is undertaken through attendance at the higher education provider on a regular basis; or

• for higher degree unit enrolments, where regular attendance is not required, but the student attends the higher education provider on an agreed schedule for the purposes of supervision and/or instruction.

External mode of attendance is where lesson materials, assignments, etc. are delivered to the student, and any associated attendance at the institution is of an incidental, irregular, special or voluntary nature.

Multi-modal mode of attendance is where study is undertaken partially on an internal mode of attendance and partially on an external mode of attendance.” (my bolding)

(Source here)